Chronicles of the Global Rift

 Chronicles of the Global Rift

Article 1. Source code and world map before the storm (01.01.2022)
To understand why the world looks exactly like this today, in 2026—with burning terminals, drone fleets in the straits, and Trump's harsh ultimatums—we need to take a step back. Not even a step, but a full-blown leap in time. Let's rewind to January 1, 2022.

At the dawn of 2022, the international security architecture existed in what analysts would later call an "illusory equilibrium." The world was just beginning to recover from the shock of the COVID-19 pandemic. Diplomatic protocols were observed, summits were held on schedule, and global markets seemed to be recovering.

But beneath this thin veneer of normality, a tectonic shift was already taking place, the scale of which was only apparent to a few within the intelligence community. Western capitals were consumed by economic reports and the "green agenda," while in the East, the map of the future war had already been drawn.

Let's look at this map through the eyes of a geopolitical surgeon.

Anatomy of the Great Rift

The West's main mistake at that moment was believing that the confrontation could still be averted. The reality was this: by January 1, 2022, China had already formed a proto-axis aimed at dismantling US hegemony.

This wasn't a spontaneous reaction to sanctions. It was a structure. Back in July 2021, six months before Russia's invasion of Ukraine, Beijing and Moscow formalized the core of their bloc, creating an organization with the cynical name "Group of Friends in Defense of the UN Charter."

Despite its innocent name, this structure became the diplomatic vanguard of the anti-Western coalition. By January 2022, this "hard core" already included 18 states. They formed the foundation of the Axis we face today.

Here's a full list of these countries, grouped by region to give you an idea of ​​the scope of coverage:

🔹 Eurasia and the Middle East (Core of Power):

1️⃣ China is the bloc's architect, economic donor, and technological center.

2️⃣ Russia — A military battering ram, a supplier of resources, and a nuclear umbrella.

3️⃣ Iran is a strategic partner, already being integrated into the axis (25-year agreement with China).

4️⃣ Belarus is a springboard for pressure on Europe and a logistics hub.

5️⃣ Syria is a client state that owes its survival to Moscow and the Chinese veto in the UN.

6️⃣ Palestine is a symbolic element for the ideological mobilization of the Global South.

🔹 Asia (Pacific flank):

7️⃣ North Korea - A nuclear-armed military proxy, ready to escalate.

8️⃣ Cambodia is a reliable political client of China within ASEAN.

9️⃣ Laos - Economically dependent vassal of Beijing (debt trap through infrastructure).

🔹 Latin America (Underbelly of the USA):

1️⃣0️⃣ Venezuela - Oil reservoir and key anti-American outpost.

1️⃣1️⃣ Cuba - Ideological ally and radar reconnaissance base near the borders of Florida.

1️⃣2️⃣ Nicaragua - Finally cemented its loyalty by severing ties with Taiwan at the end of 2021.

1️⃣3️⃣ Bolivia - Lithium partner with a leftist government loyal to the axis.

1️⃣4️⃣ Saint Vincent and the Grenadines - Diplomatic support in the Caribbean.

🔹 Africa (Resource base):

1️⃣5️⃣ Algeria is Russia's largest military client in the region.

1️⃣6️⃣ Angola - Deep debt dependence on China (oil-for-loans model).

1️⃣7️⃣ Eritrea - Strategic control over the entrance to the Red Sea (Bab el-Mandeb Strait).

1️⃣8️⃣ Equatorial Guinea - A country where China has negotiated the establishment of a naval base in the Atlantic.

These 18 countries already acted as a single organism, voting synchronously in the UN and providing political cover for each other.

The Double Containment Paradox

Why have Moscow and Beijing, historically deeply suspicious of each other, come so close? The answer lies in the "dual containment paradox." The US strategy, which attempted to simultaneously suppress the Kremlin's military ambitions and China's technological rise, backfired. Instead of isolating them, Washington literally pushed them into each other's arms.

By January 2022, it had become a "quasi-alliance." Russia began rerouting pipelines to the East (the "Power of Siberia"), and China began linking its banking system with Russia's, preparing for a possible SWIFT shutdown. Russia provided resources and combat experience, China provided capital and technology.

Blue Fortress and Fog in the Gray Zone

And what was the West doing at the same time? The Biden administration was trying to consolidate an "alliance of democracies." On one side stood the collective West—NATO, the EU, and the Pacific allies (Australia, Japan). On the other, the already-formed coalition of revisionists.

But between these two poles lay a vast gray zone—countries that the US, by inertia, considered partners, but which China was already actively winning over through the Belt and Road Initiative and vaccine diplomacy.

Take a look at the key players in this area as of early 2022:

🔸 Saudi Arabia and the UAE.The West's traditional guarantors of energy security were already beginning to drift. Riyadh was discussing oil trades in yuan and purchasing Chinese ballistic missiles, negotiating with Washington.

🔸 India.New Delhi found itself in a difficult position. While a member of BRICS and the SCO (sitting at the same table with China and Russia), India was simultaneously deepening ties with the US through the Quad format, fearing Chinese expansion in the Himalayas.

Why did we miss the beginning?

The key thesis of my analysis is simple: the asymmetry of perception.

While democracies were preoccupied with internal culture wars, elections, the "green transition," and GDP recovery, authoritarian regimes completed the consolidation of command and control resources. They created the appearance of a monolith.

The dichotomy was striking: the visible strength of autocracies, but with hidden internal rot (corruption, lies in reports to the top), versus the visible weakness and fragmentation of democracies, which, however, possessed an enormous hidden reserve of institutional strength.

It was precisely this configuration—the democratic disunity and low morale of the West (which we'll discuss in the next article) versus the authoritarian mobilization of the East—that formed the basis of Vladimir Putin's fatal decision to invade. He looked at this map and decided that the window of opportunity was wide open. He saw a West that seemed too weak and sated to resist.

On January 1, 2022, the world stood frozen on the brink of a precipice. The West was materially unprepared for a major war, but had evolved politically; the authoritarian axis was politically mobilized, but materially rotten from within.

The clash of these two realities became inevitable. In the next part, we'll delve into the dictators' secret files and examine why they were so confident of a quick victory, and what the true morale of the armies on both sides of the barricades was.

Article 2. Asymmetry of Will: Why Dictatorships Decided to Attack

In the first article, we laid out a world map from early 2022 on a table. It showed that the "Axis of Evil" was formed and ready for battle long before the first shot was fired. But wars aren't started simply by looking at a map. They're started by examining the enemy's psychological profile.

Today, we'll open those very same "secret folders" that lay on desks in the Kremlin and Zhongnanhai in the winter of 2021–2022. What exactly convinced Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping that the West was a colossus with feet of clay, one that would collapse?

The answer lies in the term "Asymmetry of Will." It's the story of how dictatorships overestimated their own monolithic nature and fatally underestimated the latent resilience of democracies.

The Mirage of the "Vertical of Power"

By January 1, 2022, the authoritarian regimes had completed their internal cleansing. They looked like perfect war machines.

The famous "vertical" power structure was established in Russia. The 2020 constitutional reform ("zeroing out the term") sent a signal to the elites: the transfer of power was cancelled, Putin was here to stay. The governance system mutated into a rigid hierarchy, where loyalty, not competence, became the primary virtue.

But it was precisely here that the trap that the Kremlin had set for itself lay: the “feedback trap.”

🔸 Intelligence blindness.The intelligence agencies, primarily the FSB, began operating on a "what do you want?" principle. They supplied analysis to the top that corresponded not to reality, but to the expectations of the "top man." No one wanted to bring bad news to the dictator.

🔸 Information bubble.By purging the opposition and independent media in 2021, the regime blinded itself. The country's leadership sincerely believed its own propaganda myths about Ukrainians awaiting "liberation" and the West being morally corrupt.

In China, the situation was mirrored. Xi Jinping methodically eliminated the system of checks and balances. Party purges led to the bureaucracy being paralyzed by fear of initiative. Officials preferred to remain silent about problems, lest they appear "disloyal."

Crisis of Will in the West: The "Post-Heroic" Society

And what did dictators see when they looked at the West? They saw societies that had forgotten how to fight.

Global survey data from late 2021 painted a picture of the Kremlin's ideal victim: a "post-heroic" society where personal comfort was valued immeasurably more than abstract sovereignty.

Look at the numbers, which were undoubtedly highlighted in red in Russian intelligence reports. Citizens' willingness to fight for their country if attacked:

📉 Netherlands: 15%

📉 Germany: 18%

📉 United Kingdom: 27%

📉 France: 29%

📉 USA: 41% (historic low after 9/11).

For Putin, this was a signal: NATO would not fight. Europeans would choose cheap gas and "peace at any price," rather than leave their comfort zone.

Culture wars instead of preparation

The second marker of weakness that autocracies have been reading is the ideological split within Western armies.

While tanks were amassing on the Ukrainian border, the Pentagon was rocked by "culture wars." The implementation of DEI (diversity, equity, and inclusion) programs became a red flag for conservative segments of American society. The US Army faced a recruiting crisis: the traditional core of the infantry (men from rural areas) abandoned their service, believing the military was too politicized.

In Europe, the situation was even more surreal. In Germany, the left wing of the SPD blocked the arming of Heron TP drones for years. The argument was ethical: a drone operator who kills with a "push of a joystick" supposedly loses moral compunction. This debate, divorced from the realities of modern warfare, left the Bundeswehr without critical weapons on the eve of invasion.

Paper vs. Reality: Military Potential

On paper, the balance of power looked frightening for Kyiv and encouraging for Moscow.

Russia: "Potemkin Juggernaut"

Russia possessed the world's largest tank fleet (approximately 12,400 units) and a superiority in missiles. But behind the façade of might lurked rot. Corruption and window-dressing meant that battalion tactical groups (BTGs) were equipped with hardware, not personnel. The infantry that was supposed to protect the tanks simply didn't exist in sufficient numbers.

West: "Showcase Armies"

NATO armies were technologically advanced but structurally fragile. They were optimized for short expeditionary missions, not for major war.

🔹 Germany:The ground forces inspector admitted that the Bundeswehr was "standing empty-handed." Its ammunition reserves were sufficient for exactly two days of intense fighting.

🔹 France:Europe's most capable army, but simulations showed that in a high-intensity conflict, Paris would run out of precision weapons within a few weeks.

Fatal Miscalculation

It was this combination of factors that formed the basis for the decision to invade.

Putin saw a historic window of opportunity. He saw a West that seemed too divided, too woke and too cowardly (18% willing to fight) to resist. He saw his army as an invincible armada, and Ukraine as a failed state.

He failed to take into account only one thing: the chaos of democracy often conceals adaptability and resilience that the fragile order of dictatorship cannot replicate. When the real shooting began, "post-heroic" societies began to awaken, while "monolithic" autocracies began to crack at the seams.

In the next article, we will fast forward through the chaos of the early years of the war to 2025 and see how Trump's return and his "Agenda 47" strategy have turned the chessboard from defense to offense.

Article 3. Change of Eras: Agenda 47 and the New US Strategy

In the first two articles, we examined the world map drawn by dictators and the psychological illusions that drove them to war. We saw a world where democracies appeared weak and autocracies monolithic.

But every scenario has a turning point. In our timeline, that moment was January 20, 2025.

Donald Trump's return to the White House didn't just change the sign on the Oval Office. It changed the operating system of the entire Western world. The era of "containment," which had defined US policy since Harry Truman, was officially over. The era of "Rollback" and the systematic dismantling of adversaries had begun.

Today we'll examine the anatomy of this reversal. What is "Agenda 47," how Trump rewrote NATO's rules, and why the Monroe Doctrine has received a new, aggressive life under the name "Don Ro."

The End of the Containment Illusion

By 2025, Washington had finally realized that Biden's strategy had failed. The concept of "dual containment" (simultaneous pressure on Russia and China) had not isolated the adversaries but, on the contrary, had welded them into a single fist. Instead of splitting the axis, sanctions had merely accelerated the creation of an alternative financial system and the military integration of Moscow and Beijing.

The new White House team—with key roles filled by hard-line realists Robert O'Brien (National Security Advisor) and Elbridge Colby (Pentagon Strategist)—delivered a stark diagnosis to Trump: the time for diplomatic overtures is over. To survive, America must stop being the "world's policeman" and become the "world's bouncer."

Thus was born the 2025 National Security Strategy. At its core was a rejection of the export of democracy. No more lectures on human rights. Only naked pragmatism, economic protection, and the principle of "peace through strength." The Indo-Pacific region was declared not a zone of competition, but a battlefield for the survival of American hegemony.

NATO: Pay Up or Leave (Two-Tier Alliance Concept)

The new strategy came as the most painful shock to Europe. For decades, the Old World lived under the American nuclear umbrella, spending its budgets on social benefits rather than tanks. Trump destroyed this comfortable world in a single summit.

He introduced the concept of a "Two-Tier Alliance." From now on, NATO members were divided into two castes:

🔹 Payers:Those who spent more than 2% of GDP on defense (the bar was later raised to a shocking 5% under the so-called "Hague Commitment") were guaranteed full and automatic protection under Article 5.

🔹 Freeloaders:Those who fail to meet financial standards. Trump has openly stated that the United States does not consider itself bound by any automatic protection for them.

It was an ultimatum. Europe first fell into stupor, then began frantic rearmament, realizing that the "free ride" was over. Trump transformed the Alliance from a club of common interests into a hard-line transactional deal.

Donroe Doctrine

If Trump demanded money in Europe, in the Western Hemisphere he demanded absolute loyalty. Analysts dubbed his new approach the "Donroe Doctrine"—a hybrid of the name Donald and the classic Monroe Doctrine of 1823.

The gist is simple: the Western Hemisphere is closed. No entry.

Trump expanded the old ban on interference by European powers to include "non-hemispheric competitors." This was a direct signal to China and Russia. Any strategic asset—be it a Chinese-built port in Peru or a Russian advisory base in Venezuela—was now declared an existential threat to "Fortress America."

It was this doctrine that became the legal and moral justification for the military operations that would follow in 2026. Operations against cartels in Mexico and against the Maduro regime in Venezuela were reclassified from "interventions" to "homeland defense" operations.

Economic war as a norm

The fourth pillar of Agenda 47 was all-out economic warfare. Trump blurred the line between economics and security, declaring that "economic security is national security."

The main weapon was the so-called “Liberation Day Tariffs”:

🔸 Strike against China:The imposition of 60% tariffs on all Chinese imports and the stripping of China's "most favored nation" status. The goal is to physically rip American industry out of Chinese supply chains, even at the cost of temporarily increasing inflation in the US.

🔸 Universal tariff:10–20% on goods from all other countries.

🔸 Hunting for middlemen:Countries like Vietnam and Mexico, which China used as transit hubs to circumvent sanctions, received a stern warning: either be transparent or face the same tariffs as Beijing. This dealt a fatal blow to the "China Plus One" strategy.

Bottom Line: Transactional Multipolarity

By January 2026, the world had changed beyond recognition. Old institutions like the WTO had become empty shells. The "global village" had given way to an era where everyone is for themselves, and alliances are built not on shared values, but on common enemies and concrete gains.

In this new world, there were no friends, only dealmakers. And while democrats mourned the death of the liberal order, dictators in Moscow and Beijing realized with horror: the predictable, rule-bound Washington was gone. In its place was a player willing to overturn the pieces on the board and use economic blackmail and military force without hesitation.

In the next article, we'll see how this new strategy moved from the classroom to the battlefield. We'll examine the kinetic phase: how the US and its allies began methodically severing the Axis's tentacles, destroying their proxy forces in Africa, the Middle East, and Latin America.

Article 4. The Battle for the Periphery: How the US Began to Cut Off the Tentacles of the Axis

In our previous article, we discussed how the new Trump administration has rewritten the rules of the game in the administration, replacing the "containment" strategy with a "rollback" strategy. But documents, no matter how formidable, remain just paper until the guns start firing.

2025 became a moment of truth for the American military machine. Washington had rigorously corrected the mistakes of the past. The Iraq-Afghanistan syndrome had finally been overcome.

The Pentagon and the White House have realized something fundamental: attempts to bring democracy to hostile cultures by force of arms are doomed. Twenty years of "nation-building" in the deserts of the East have led only to the deaths of thousands of American men, trillions in waste, and the destabilization of regions. Democracy doesn't take root where it's not wanted.

Trump has abandoned this messianic idea. His approach has become cynical, technological, and deadly effective. No occupation administrations. No building schools for local children.

The strategy has been transformed into a simple formula:Submission or collapse: The hostile regime will be targeted, remotely, and mercilessly—using drones, aircraft, cyberweapons, and special forces—until it either collapses under the weight of its internal problems or comes crawling to negotiate on Washington's terms.

Historians may notice a grim irony here: the United States acted in much the same way during World War II, brutally coercing hesitant countries in Latin America and Europe into joining the anti-Hitler coalition. You're either with us, or you cease to exist as a sovereign entity.

Today, we'll examine the anatomy of this global purge. We'll see how, without engaging in major ground wars, the Americans hunted mercenaries in Africa, scorched Iran's nuclear ambitions, and carried out their most daring operation in Latin America.

Africa: The "Proxy vs. Proxy" Gambit

By 2024, Russia seemed to have achieved a major victory in Africa. A series of coups in the Sahel (Mali, Niger, Burkina Faso) forced France out. The uranium-rich region came under the control of the Afrika Korps (a rebranding of the Wagner PMC). Moscow believed it had grabbed God by the beard.

Trump didn't send the Marines there. Why risk his own when there are those with their own scores to settle with the Russians?

The US implemented a "proxy-on-proxy" strategy by entering into a tacit pact with Ukrainian intelligence agencies. Ukraine had motivated professionals (the GUR) ready to pursue the enemy anywhere in the world. The US had satellites, logistics, and money.

The culmination was the Battle of Tin Zaouatin on the border between Mali and Algeria.

🔸 Event: A column of Russia's elite "Africa Corps," confident of its impunity, fell into a perfectly planned ambush by Tuaregs.

🔸 Detail: The attack and FPV drone strikes were coordinated by Ukrainian operators.

🔸 Result: Total defeat. Footage of burning equipment and captured mercenaries showed all the local tsars: the Russian "umbrella" was full of holes.

Washington achieved its goal through proxy means: the Sahel has transformed from a resource base into a zone of constant bleeding for Moscow.

Middle East: Operation Midnight Hammer

If in Africa they worked with a scalpel, then in the Middle East they used a sledgehammer.

For years, Iran had been building an "Axis of Resistance," feeling invulnerable thanks to nuclear blackmail. Instead of sending troops into Iran (which would have been a disaster worse than Iraq), the US decided to simply knock out the regime's teeth.

In June 2025, the "12-Day War" (Operation Midnight Hammer) began.

For the first time in many years, the United States has made large-scale use of B-2 Spirit strategic stealth bombers with GBU-57 MOP bunker buster bombs.

🔹 Objective: Destroying deeply buried nuclear facilities at Fordow and Natanz.

🔹 Result: The infrastructure Tehran had spent decades building was reduced to dust in a matter of nights. Without a nuclear weapon and with its proxies decapitated (Israel did its part here), the ayatollah regime lost its weight.

The US didn't occupy Iran. They simply bombed its ambitions back into the Stone Age, leaving the regime alone with a ruined country and an angry population.

Venezuela: Operation Absolute Resolve

The new doctrine taught its most telling lesson in Latin America. Under Maduro, Venezuela became a drug trafficking hub and a base for China and Russia.

On January 3, 2026, Trump activated Operation Absolute Resolve. It was a masterclass in regime change without occupying a country.

Instead of tank wedges - a surgical raid.

🔸 Forces: Delta Force and 75th Ranger Regiment operators supported by 160th Airlift Wing helicopters (Night Stalkers).

🔸 Progress: Lightning landing right in Caracas. Suppression of air defenses with cyberattacks. The assault on Miraflores Palace took less than an hour.

🔸 Final: Nicolás Maduro was captured, packed up, and taken to the United States for trial.

No long stints in the jungle. Strike—result—departure. Left without a leader, the vertical power structure crumbled, and the new elites immediately realized: it was better to reach an agreement with Washington than to wait for the next helicopter.

Result: End of impunity

By early 2026, the Axis periphery was ablaze.

1️⃣ Russia's African project has stalled.

2️⃣ Iran was neutered militarily.

3️⃣ Venezuela is beheaded.

The US has proven the effectiveness of its new model: there's no need to build democracy, just effectively eliminate threats. Having severed the tentacles, Trump has turned the main guns toward China. In the next article, we'll examine the "Dominion" strategy and the plan to transform the Taiwan Strait into a "Hellscape."

Article 5. The Dragon in the Cage: The Dominion Strategy and the Technological Hellscape

In the previous article, we observed how the American "rollback" machine methodically chopped off the Axis's tentacles on the periphery—in the sands of Africa, the mountains of Iran, and the jungles of Venezuela. This was a bloody, but only preliminary phase. Clearing the flanks was essential for the main goal.

Now that Beijing's allies are decapitated or disorganized, Washington has turned to face its main existential adversary.

This article is about China. It explores how the Trump administration has shifted from trade disputes to a strategy of total strangulation codenamed "Dominion." We'll examine how the Taiwan Strait is planned to become a death zone for the Chinese navy, why Japan's missiles are changing everything, and what the "Silicon Curtain" that has descended on China looks like.

Dominion Strategy: From Competition to Dismantling

While Biden called China a “strategic competitor,” Trump’s 47 team defined it as an “existential threat” that needed to be dismantled.

The new US grand strategy assumes that time is running out. China is building ships and accumulating resources too quickly. Therefore, Dominion aims not just to contain Beijing, but to deprive it of the physical ability to start a war by collapsing its economy and creating an insurmountable military barrier.

Military Aspect: Hellscape

The Pentagon's biggest nightmare is a rapid Chinese landing on Taiwan while American aircraft carriers are still en route. To address this, the "Hellscape" concept was developed.

Its essence is simple and terrible: to turn the Taiwan Strait into a deserted meat grinder.

As soon as satellites detect the start of an invasion, the strait will be filled with thousands of autonomous combat systems:

🔹 In the air: Swarms of kamikaze drones controlled by artificial intelligence.

🔹 On the water: Unmanned fireboats (based on the experience of the war in the Black Sea).

🔹 Underwater: Autonomous mines and hunter drones.

The goal of "Hellscape" isn't to defeat China single-handedly, but to create chaos. To keep the Chinese invasion fleet bogged down in blood and burning metal for two to three weeks while the main US and Japanese forces converge.

Rocket Ring: The Typhon Factor

While drones prepare to wreak havoc in the strait, the US has established an outer perimeter. In 2025, a historic event occurred that Beijing perceived as a "reverse Cuban Missile Crisis."

Washington has deployed its latest Typhon missile systems (capable of launching Tomahawks and SM-6 anti-aircraft missiles at ground targets) for the first time in the Philippines and, most painfully, in Japan.

This changed the geometry of the war. Previously, China felt safe under the umbrella of its missiles. Now, the industrial centers of China's east coast—Shanghai, Ningbo, Wenzhou—found themselves in the crosshairs of American missiles with a flight time of just minutes. The "sanitary zone" that China had built over decades disappeared.

Economic Noose: Doomsday Tariffs

Trump, a businessman, understands that an army costs money. If China is deprived of its windfall profits, its military machine will grind to a halt.

The economic part of the Dominion strategy includes three brutal blows:

1️⃣ Cancellation of PNTR status.Removing China's status as a "permanent normal trade partner." This legally ends Cold War-era trade with China.

2️⃣ Tariffs 60%.The introduction of protective tariffs on all Chinese imports. This isn't just a tax—it's a barrier that makes Chinese goods uncompetitive in the US market.

3️⃣ Hunting for "transshipment".China attempted to circumvent sanctions by building factories in Vietnam and Mexico (the "China Plus One strategy"). Trump closed this loophole by declaring that any product with Chinese origins, regardless of origin, would be subject to the same tariff.

For China's export-oriented economy, already suffering from a housing and demographic crisis, this was a blow to the gut. Factories began closing, and youth unemployment skyrocketed.

Tech Frontier: Silicon Blockade

But the quietest and most deadly front runs not across the seas, but through microchips.

The US has imposed a total embargo on the supply of advanced semiconductors and production equipment to China. The logic is simple: modern weapons, AI, and surveillance systems don't work without chips.

America, which (along with its allies in the Netherlands and Japan) controlled the bottlenecks in lithographic equipment production, simply turned off the tap. China was thrown back into the technological past, forced to spend billions reinventing the wheel instead of creating the weapons of the future.

Cyberwar: The Invisible Battle

In response, China activated its cyber forces. The "Volt Typhoon" group has been infiltrating critical US infrastructure for years—water pipelines, Guam's power grid, and port cranes.

In 2025–2026, this war emerged from the shadows. The FBI and US Cyber ​​Command began conducting operations to "remotely destroy" Chinese botnets, hacking the hackers in response. This was the first digital preventative defense of this scale in history.

Result: A Cornered Rat

By early 2026, Xi Jinping found himself in a strategic impasse.

Its allies (Russia, Iran) are weakened. Its economy is suffocated by tariffs. Its navy is trapped by the "Hellscape" and missiles in Japan. Its tech sector is cut off from global progress.

The Dominion Strategy confronted Beijing with a dire choice: either a slow decline and internal collapse, or a desperate attempt to break the blockade by force, risking everything. History teaches us that cornered empires can be unpredictable.

In the next, final article in the series, we'll summarize the global transformation. We'll look at the new world of 2026 in its entirety: who won, who lost, and what a future looks like where there are no more rules, only interests.

Article 6. Endgame 2026: The World of Transactions and the New Reality

We've come a long way in this series of articles. We began with the illusory world of 2022, where war seemed impossible. We peered into the offices of dictators who overestimated their powers. We saw how America under Trump shifted its strategy from polite "containment" to aggressive "rollback," and how mercenary bases in Africa and bunkers in Iran went up in flames.

Today we set a time limit. The calendar reads January 2026. The fog of war has cleared somewhat, and we can discern the contours of a new world order.

This is not the world dreamed of by the liberal idealists of the 1990s. There is no "end of history" or universal brotherhood here. This is a hard, cold, and brutally honest world. A world ruled not by UN resolutions, but by the balance of power, technology, and economic might.

Let's see who's left with what in this game of geopolitical poker.

The Death of the Global Village and the Birth of the Silicon Curtain

The main outcome of the past four years is the final collapse of globalization as we know it. The world has split into two technological and economic blocs.

🔹 Blue Fortress:The United States, Europe, Japan, South Korea, and Australia. This bloc controls advanced technologies (chips, artificial intelligence, quantum computing), SWIFT financial flows, and key shipping routes.

🔹 Red Continent:China, Russia, North Korea, Iran. A bloc rich in resources and cheap labor, but cut off from future technologies and markets.

A "Silicon Curtain" has descended between them. It's not a concrete wall like in Berlin, but an impenetrable barrier of export controls, tariffs, and patent restrictions. Any microchip produced using Western technology is now tracked as a weapon of mass destruction.

Financial Devastation: Why the Dollar Survived

In 2023–2024, there was much talk of de-dollarization and the creation of a single BRICS currency. By 2026, these conversations had died down.

It turns out that in an era of global instability, no one wants to save in a currency backed only by the promises of authoritarian regimes. As soon as Trump imposed the "Doomsday Tariffs," capital fled not to the yuan, but back to the safe haven of the US dollar.

The financial system fragmented. The West cut off competitors from cheap money. China and Russia switched to barter and digital currencies for domestic use, but for global trade, this represented a return to the Middle Ages. The dollar transformed from a means of payment into Washington's most powerful non-lethal weapon.

The Great Sorting: The End of Neutrality

The most dramatic transformation occurred in the so-called "Gray Zone" or Global South. Countries that had been trying to tread water for decades—India, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Brazil—were forced to make a tough choice.

Washington's policy has become binary: "You're either in the Blue Fortress supply chain or under the Red Continent's tariffs."

🔸 India: Fearing China in the Himalayas and needing technology, New Delhi has made a pragmatic choice in favor of the West, becoming the new "assembly shop" of democracies instead of China.

🔸 Saudi Arabia: After the destruction of Iran's nuclear program, Riyadh realized who the real guarantor of regional security was. Oil began flowing again in exchange for American guarantees, and Chinese projects in the kingdom were frozen.

China: The Great Slowdown

China wasn't destroyed, but it was stopped. The Dominion Strategy worked.

Deprived of access to Western markets (due to 60% tariffs) and advanced chips, Beijing faced a domestic crisis. Its export-based economy began to choke. Youth unemployment, a housing crisis, and a demographic collapse took their toll.

The "Chinese Dream" of global domination by 2049 has been postponed. Xi Jinping finds himself trapped within his own borders, surrounded by a missile barrage from US allies (Japan, the Philippines) and a "hellscape" of drones in the Taiwan Strait. The dragon is still dangerous, but it's no longer growing. It's aging, snarling, and trying to maintain the Party's grip on power within the country.

Russia: Vassal against one's will

For Moscow, the results of 2026 look the most dramatic. Putin's strategic goal of restoring Russia's superpower status has backfired.

Cut off from Western technology and capital, Russia has become a raw materials appendage of China. But even this role has become precarious, as China itself is under attack.

Having lost influence in Africa (after the defeat of the mercenaries) and the Caucasus, and having lost the European gas market, Moscow was left with a huge but technologically degraded army and an economy struggling to function. Russia remains on the map, but has lost its sovereignty. Key decisions about its economy are now made not in the Kremlin, but through negotiations between Washington and Beijing.

Ukraine: Porcupine Strategy in the Fire of War

In this new world, Ukraine has occupied a special, tragic, and heroic place. The Trump administration's peace enforcement plan (the Kellogg Plan) failed to immediately halt the war. Despite diplomatic pressure, the bloodshed continues, and the front line remains scorching hot.

The illusion of a quick "freeze" has been dispelled. Instead, the West has adopted a strategy of attrition against the aggressor, using Ukrainian forces as its ally. Ukraine has finally become a "European porcupine"—a state that Moscow cannot swallow without succumbing to internal ruptures.

The West, realizing that Putin wouldn't stop, began pumping weapons into Kyiv, no longer for negotiations, but for the complete destruction of Russia's military potential. The Ukrainian military-industrial complex, integrated with the European one, became the continent's main arsenal. Ukraine became the Blue Fortress's shield, absorbing attacks intended for NATO and paying the highest price for Europe's security.

Europe: The Force Awakens and the End of the Woke

The Old World experienced double shock therapy – military and mental.

First, Trump's "Pay or Leave" ultimatum worked. By 2026, NATO is a military camp. Germany, Poland, and France have launched their factories at full capacity.

Secondly, a mental shift has occurred. Faced with an existential threat from the East, Western societies have begun to abandon the "luxury beliefs" of the 2010s. Culture wars have subsided. The DEI (diversity for diversity's sake) agenda in the military has given way to meritocracy and combat effectiveness. The West has become tougher, angrier, and more focused.

New Ethics: Transactional Multipolarity

The most important change has occurred in our minds. The era of liberal idealism is over. The era of "Transactional Multipolarity" has arrived.

In this world, relationships are built on the principle of a transaction:

🔸 Do you want US protection? Show me your military budget.

🔸 Do you want to trade with the West? Give up Chinese technology.

🔸 Are you a dictator threatening your neighbors? Expect a Tomahawk or a landing, not "deep concern" from the UN.

Is this world more dangerous? Absolutely. But it is also more honest. The illusions of 2022 have been dispelled. We live in a reality where the right of might has once again become an argument, but now this right is backed not only by brute force but also by the intellectual, technological, and economic superiority of democracies.

Democracies that seemed weak, flabby, and decadent have proven themselves capable of mobilizing, regrouping, and fighting back. And this, perhaps, is the main lesson of the "Global Rift."

This concludes our series of chronicles. Thank you for walking this path of analysis with me. The future isn't predetermined, but at least now we understand the rules of the game by which it will be built.